A machine learning method to support shipping operations in ice: Applications to tactical voyage routing and strategic regulatory assessment
In 1914, only 2 years after RMS Titanic collided with an iceberg and sank off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, the International Ice Patrol was established to monitor iceberg danger and warn ships about the presence of icebergs. Today, satellite images are used to monitor icebergs and sea ice, and ships planning voyages through ice-infested waters are required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to consult a wealth of ice, sea and weather information.
Canada's Arctic Ocean covers a vast 1.2 million square kilometres and challenges seafarers who have to navigate through its water and ice. Sea ice is dynamic, driven by ocean currents from below and wind from above. The ice can squeeze ships and pile up, creating high pressure areas. Further south in the North Atlantic Ocean—with "south" being relative of course— large ice chunks that break away from icebergs in Greenland are swept by the Labrador Current past Newfoundland and Labrador.
As shipping activity in the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans increases with reductions in sea ice because of climate change, the National Research Council of Canada (NRC) is working to improve the safety of vessel operations and decrease the environmental impacts of shipping.
In collaboration with Memorial University, the NRC through its Ocean program has created a computer modelling tool to aid in planning safe and efficient routes for Arctic voyages. And they have also developed a novel "sand box" environment to test the possible impacts of changes to shipping policies.
Dr. Tom Browne, a senior research officer at the NRC's Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre, explains, "We've developed this marine policy design tool that can help policy makers as they create or change policies, but it also helps ship operators and other stakeholders understand how these policies may impact them."
Ships are classed based on the ice conditions they can safely navigate. Dr. Browne describes how this NRC tool also helps with ship design decisions. "If the ice class is higher, a vessel can operate in more severe ice conditions, but then at the same time, its fuel consumption will likely increase. If you're at the design stage for a vessel, by using our tool, you can execute studies to weigh the benefits of increasing ice class versus the impacts on operating cost, the environment or society."
Another key application of the tool is for planning optimal routes using ice charts published by the Canadian Ice Service. "The model explores the whole environment and identifies the least-cost path between departure and arrival points, while adhering to policy constraints. The user can set the priorities. For example, they can weight the optimization algorithms to prioritize reduced fuel consumption or voyage time."
The research team observed that, in addition to adhering to shipping regulations, shipping companies also have their own internal policies, such as reducing speeds to minimize underwater noise in regions where marine animals are affected. "Our tool can give those stakeholders a way to explore the potential impacts of these policies on their own operations," says Dr. Browne.
Tien Tran, a PhD candidate at Memorial University who is leading the tool development under the guidance of Professor Brian Veitch, explains their "gamification" of the project. "We created the tool to be like a game that many users can play. The user could be a ship operator who wants to understand the effects of a new regulation, or a policy maker who can modify policies and evaluate the impact on operations, or a ship designer who wants to build a ship that is optimized for certain ice conditions."
Under a European Space Agency initiative, the NRC and Tien Tran have been contracted to integrate the tool into an existing Earth observation data platform, expanding access for Canadian and international shipping stakeholders. Called the Cerulean Information Factory, this cloud-based platform provides decision support to the polar shipping, aquaculture and offshore renewable energy sectors, helping accelerate the green transition of the ocean—or 'blue'—economy.
The technology will be further developed through the Qanittaq Clean Arctic Shipping Initiative in collaboration with the Inuit Circumpolar Council Canada and Arctic rights holders. Through this initiative, the tool will be augmented and provided to Arctic rights holders for their use to understand and communicate their concerns and values in relation to Arctic shipping and the development of new marine policies.
"What makes our work unique is the fact that we're applying it to investigate the operational impact of marine policies on ships. That policy focus makes the tool we've built valuable, not just to Canada, but internationally."